Modi’s connection goes beyond the political, it is deeply emotional and a decade after it first propelled him to power, this remains BJP’s abiding strength.Ĭonverting this connection with voters to actual votes is hard work. But more importantly, all these factors to do with Modi’s image will give the BJP an even clearer edge in the Lok Sabha elections where, as 20 have shown, the leadership question is central to voter choices. It also helped that there was no large overhanging issue - in 2018, agrarian and rural distress were very real issues. The PM provided this distinctive edge to the party in the three states, and because voters didn’t seem to think that the local alternatives on offer were qualitatively better, they appear to have decided to cast their lot with the BJP. And it is based on the projection of Modi having elevated India’s profile on the global stage. It is based on both an almost subconscious sense of Hindu identity, a belief that Modi is best placed to protect Hindu interests, and a desire to be a part of something larger than subcaste identities. It is based on a record of welfare delivery, where Modi’s image of caring for the poor due to the government’s cash transfers and “ease of living” schemes (gas cylinders, rural homes, free ration, electrification, drinking water) resonates. It is based on a promise of “double engine” sarkar, where voters buy into the narrative that having the BJP in power does lead to governance advantages. This is based on a promise of relative integrity, for the Opposition’s campaign of painting Modi as a patron of crony capitalists hasn’t struck a chord beyond his opponents just as the allegations around Rafale procurement in 2019 didn’t strike a chord. But when voters aren’t animated by local alternatives on offer, even if they aren’t enamoured by BJP’s local political platform, Modi’s presence and connect makes a difference.Īnd it makes a difference because of the reassurance that Modi seems to provide to voters. When the Congress or regional forces are able to get the right mix of local issues, local leadership, local caste coalitions, and local narrative - and this is combined with deep resentment against BJP’s local leadership - it is hard for Modi to offset all the disadvantages. How does one explain this seeming analytical inconsistency? The BJP may have an incentive in crediting Modi for wins and insulating him from losses - but there is something deeper at play. At the same time, it is also true that Modi’s appeal continues to help in state elections, as it did in this round. Such outcomes have been, accurately, explained as the dominance of local factors over the national because the same voters tell reporters and pollsters that they will vote for the PM during Lok Sabha elections. After 2018, Indian politics has witnessed a trend where voters haven’t hesitated to opt for the Congress or regional forces in state elections, even when Modi has been campaigning. There is a puzzle when it comes to Modi and state elections. Examine each of these factors separately and the contours of the 2024 battle become clearer. And it reinforces the fact that the BJP’s narrative has resonance among voters, while the Congress’s narrative, for all its creativity, doesn’t carry the same appeal. It deprives the Congress both of power and resources that would have helped during the Lok Sabha polls. It shows that BJP’s organisation remains robust and cadres remain motivated. Instead, the verdict reveals that Narendra Modi’s appeal and magical connect with voters is firmly intact - especially in the heartland. Stay tuned with breaking news on HT Channel on Facebook.
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